Honduras; everyone loses

Kevin Casas-Zamora has a stinging article at Foreign Policy, arguing that everyone lost in Honduras, and what lost the most was democracy. He concludes:

Alas, there's not a lot to gloat about in the outcome of this hapless episode. Micheletti and Lobo are simply the last men standing on a barren landscape. Their victory is a hollow one. And make no mistake: It is no victory for democracy.

It is hard to imagine broad non-recognition lasting too long, unless something very dramatic happens before Pepe Lobo is sworn in. Regardless, nothing will happen to Roberto Micheletti for breaking the law and nothing will happen to members of the armed forces for violating the constitution.

Instead, Honduras will return to the following:

The Honduran political elite are reading this outcome as an unconditional victory and, above all, as a license to return to politics as usual, as though nothing had happened. That will mean a return to the usual tooth-and-nail fight between factions of the well-heeled oligarchy -- each cheered on by segments of the impoverished populace -- for the spoils of a weak state.

Hooray for Honduran democracy.

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Margaret MacMillan's Dangerous Games (2009)

I read Margaret MacMillan's Dangerous Games: The Uses and Abuses of History, which I found both thought provoking and unsatisfying. That is because she offers nuggets of interesting analysis, particularly when she compares the use of history in specific contexts (e.g. the Israeli/Palestinian conflict) but she has no overall argument, other than not to abuse history (she keeps zeroing in on unnamed "amateur" historians). But then she sidesteps the question even of how to identify such abuse. Or whether everyone is guilty of it.

"History comforts us, even though, paradoxically, we know less and less about it" (p. 20). This is so true for U.S. policy toward Latin America, which viewed the Cold War as as an external problem, conveniently ignoring local realities. Since those local realities--poverty, injustice, and exclusion--remained, policy makers now view their re-emergence in Honduras as a surprise, and therefore frame them entirely in ideological terms. Or am I simply interpreting history incorrectly? Therein lies the analytical rub. Is there an objective way to consider such things? She refers to "professional historians" but of course they disagree, sometimes vehemently. Indeed, that disagreement is a necessary part of examining history. It is what professional historians do.

To be fair, she does assert that the proper role of historians is "to challenge and even explode national myths" (p. 39). The funny thing, though, is most historians believe they are doing so because no one can agree about what is a "myth." I recently reviewed a book seeking to dispel myths about the U.S. role in the Chilean coup, and my review centered largely on the fact that the "myths" were not myths at all because historians and political scientists had been dispelling it for years. It was only a myth if you had not done the reading.

Nonetheless, there is a lot to think about, regarding the use of past defeats to vilify current enemies, the suppression of contrary evidence, the use of history to promote national purity, and the casting of new symbols and ceremonies as connected to ancient rituals as a way to provide them legitimacy.

This would be a good book for an undergraduate class to chew on. It raises many questions without providing much framework for answering them, but the questions themselves are important.

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More on recognition in Honduras

It appears that a broad demand by countries that opposed the coup is to accept Mel Zelaya's brief reinstatement before Pepe Lobo takes office. From the Ibero-American Summit:

"They consider that the reinstatement of President Manuel Zelaya to the position that he was democratically elected for, until his term ends, is a fundamental step for a return to constitutional normality in Honduras," the statement said.

And specifically from Lula:

"If something new happens, we can discuss it. For now, the (Brazilian) position is not to accept the electoral process in Honduras. A new thing (we could discuss) is for Zelaya to take over for the inauguration of the new president," Lula said.

In other words, very brief. I have to wonder whether Zelaya would go for that, but Lula has a powerful voice, especially since Zelaya is living in the Brazilian embassy.

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U.S. policy and Central America

Rereading an article for class, I ran across this paragraph in an article about U.S. policy toward Latin America during the George W. Bush administration. Replace "Moscow" with "Caracas." How much has changed?

When civil strife erupted in Central America in the 1980s, these Reaganites saw only the veiled hand of Havana and Moscow behind the uprisings. They disparaged the notion that popular resistance might spring from decades of social inequality and military dictatorship. The rising tide of Latin America’s new left echoed the social and economic grievances that gave birth to Central America’s insurgencies. Dictatorships had been replaced by nominal democracies, but pervasive corruption and weak political parties made most Latin governments unresponsive to popular demands. Two decades of neoliberal economic policies had done little to alleviate the wretched living conditions of the poor. Under Bush, US policy would remain deaf to the winds of change sweeping the hemisphere, preferring the certainty of old ideological hatreds and the comfort of fighting old enemies (p. 359).

William M. Leogrande, "A Poverty of Imagination: George W. Bush's Policy in Latin America." Journal of Latin American Studies 39 (2007): 355-385.

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Recognition issues: Mexico

So who will recognize the Honduran elections? President Calderón of Mexico says the elections are a necessary but not sufficient condition for the re-establishment of constitutional order. He does not specify what "constitutional order" means.

Further:

[L]a democracia en nuestros pueblos está registrando claras regresiones de carácter no democrático, de lo cual el golpe de Estado vivido en Honduras es una situación muy preocupante y una poderosa llamada de atención para todos.

Democracy in our nations is registering clear regressions of a non-democratic character, of which the coup d'etat experienced in Honduras is a very troubling situation and a powerful call to attention for everyone.

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Turnout in Honduras

We will have to wait for the final numbers, but La Prensa reports the TSE announced turnout for the Honduran elections as 61%. That is now being reported widely.

The U.S. State Department has already noted the turnout:

Turnout appears to have exceeded that of the last presidential election. This shows that given the opportunity to express themselves, the Honduran people have viewed the election as an important part of the solution to the political crisis in their country.

The turnout question is therefore now answered. It is high enough not to deter recognition, and is significantly higher than 2005, when turnout was 45%.

On the other hand, we will also need to see the results for invalid votes. In countries with obligatory voting, casting an invalid vote (such as blank or with every candidate chosen) is a way to show protest without violating the law). That number would have to be quite high to draw attention, however.

Now we wait and see what governments recognize the results.

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Pepe Lobo wins

As had been long expected, Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo is being called the winner of the Honduran presidential election. The more interesting question, of course, is turnout. Since the Tribunal Superior Electoral's Web site has been inaccessible for hours, there are no numbers.

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Quote of the day: turnout in Honduras

From the New York Times:

But while turnout appeared low in some poorer areas, in the wealthy Tegucigalpa neighborhood of Lomas del Guijarro, people waited in voting lines for nearly an hour.

“The only way to solve the problem is to come and vote and choose the right people,” said Javier Duron, 22 a medical student.

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Another Honduran election update

According to El Heraldo's "Minuto por Minuto" Twitter feed, voting will be extended until 5 p.m. Honduran time (6 p.m. EST). In addition, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral will not allow any results to be disseminated until 7 p.m. (8 p.m. EST) Honduran time.

I've been trying to access the TSE's site for some time, but cannot connect.

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Honduras election update

From Charles II at Mercury Rising:

Radio Globo is down. Channel 36 is down. The El Libertador journalists are in hiding. Tiempo is trimming its coverage (or is simply unable to get reporters out to what is going on) so that the coup doesn’t shut it down. El Progreso is playing bouncy music; no news, since they aren’t genuinely a national radio station. This is the free press under which free and fair elections are being held.

I had successfully connected to Radio Globo online earlier this morning when the polls opened, but cannot do so now.

Also interesting that the "virtual observer" cameras still show many empty polling places.

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Honduran voting begins

The people of Honduras began voting just a short while ago, though strangely enough the "virtual observer" cameras at the Tribunal Supremo Electoral all show empty rooms.

As of now, there is a grand total of five countries that have expressed willingness to recognize the results. My hunch is that if the day appears relatively peaceful, more government will follow suit, though of course that is very much up in the air.

Abstentions will also play a part, but I also think they would have to be extremely high for it to scare off potential recognizing governments. However, a high rate of abstentionism will put more pressure on the president-elect to deal with the issue of Mel Zelaya's overthrow instead of trying to pretend it didn't happen.

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A preview of the Honduran elections

I have a preview of the Honduran elections up at The Monkey Cage.

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Obama, Honduras and Latin America

Ginger Thompson at the New York Times has a well-argued critique of the Obama administration's handling of the Honduran crisis and how it will likely affect its relations with Latin America.

The United States was slow to criticize human rights abuses by the de facto government, but swift to scold Mr. Zelaya for political stunts that culminated with his sneaking back into Honduras, where he remains camped inside the Brazilian Embassy.

The move that seems to have most undermined Mr. Obama’s clout came last month when the administration reversed course by signaling that it would accept the outcome of Sunday’s elections whether or not Mr. Zelaya was restored to power.

Latin American governments accused the administration of putting pragmatism over principle and of siding with Honduran military officers and business interests whose goal was to use the elections to legitimize the coup.

Very true. Then I kept reading and winced at the description of Mel Zelaya:

His critics say he crossed a line when he defied the Supreme Court and pushed a referendum to change the Constitution so that he could run for another term. The court called in the military.

It is frustrating that every news outlet keeps repeating the same falsehood about running for another term. The referendum made no mention of terms or re-election.

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Honduran court ruling

The Honduran Supreme Court ruled that Mel Zelaya cannot be reinstated unless he faces the pending charges against him. These were, we should remember, the charges that were pending against him on June 28, when the military decided it was better to forcibly and illegally exile him rather than let him address said charges through regular, democratic, and legal channels.

This also means that Congress, which had been planning to vote on his reinstatement on December 2, won't be able to do so without contradicting the court.

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Prospects for immigration reform

Scott Keeter at the Pew Hispanic Center takes a look at the prospects for immigration reform in 2010. The main conclusion is that not much has changed. People support the idea of reform but are ambivalent about many aspects of immigration, while the issue is consistently viewed as less important than the economy, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.

A major unknown is how bloodied Obama emerges from the health care debate, because immigration reform will require a lot of luring and arm twisting. Further, Keeter notes the following:

More generally, partisan differences on the issue have grown since two years ago, potentially making it more difficult to achieve a consensus in Congress.

Since there is virtually no Republican leadership in Congress, we will hear quite a lot from Lou Dobbs, Sarah Palin, et al.

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AMLO's refounding

pc at Ganchoblog notes that AMLO (André Manuel López Obrador) is "refounding" his shadow government. He has ten goals:

1) Rescuing the state and putting it at the service of the people and the nation

2) Democratizing the mass media

3) Creating a new economy

4) Combating monopolistic practices

5) Abolishing fiscal special treatment

6) Exercising politics as an ethical imperative

7) Strengthening the energy sector

8) Achieving nutritional sovereignty

9) Establishing a welfare state

10) Promoting a new current of thought

And a patridge in a pear tree. These are so broad as to be essentially meaningless, but they provide a foundation on which to begin advocating specific policies.

AMLO is looking to the 2012 presidential election. I keep thinking of him as a Mexican Richard Nixon, going off scorned into the political wilderness and then re-emerging after whipping up his base.

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Brazil in the Middle East

As Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad begins his visit to Latin America, most attention will be on the deep opposition of the U.S. to the visit. The Americas Blog at Aljazeera notes another angle that is starting to receive more attention: Lula's desire to project Brazil into the Middle East peace process. He has already hosted Shimon Peres and Mahmoud Abbas:

I spoke about peace with President Shimon Peres, with Mahmoud Abbas and I will speak with Ahmadinejad about it. I am going to speak about it because I think only peace can guarantee the growth of countries, and tranquility of peoples and a better life for people. I have a notion of the significance of the conflicts in the Middle East. I have a notion of the role of Iran, and that of Israel, and the role of Palestine, and of Syria.

A bold move. From the NYT:

Brazilian officials say the holy grail of Mr. da Silva’s Middle Eastern initiative is to improve relations between Israel and the Palestinians, and they see Iran as a key player in resolving the conflict.

But before Lula dives too deeply into one of the most difficult conflicts in the world, he still has to figure out what to do with Mel Zelaya, who is sitting in his Honduran embassy with a very uncertain future.

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Honduras and the Millenium Challenge Corporation

Bill Conroy at Narcosphere has a detailed analysis of the Millenium Challenge Corporation scorecard that was just released for Honduras. The scorecard represents a U.S. government assessment of the economic conditions of those countries receiving aid.

It is particularly notable that despite the coup supporters' insistence that Mel Zelaya was pushing the country toward Bolivarian socialism, the MCC rated Honduras as the 68th percentile for "Business Start-Up" and a whopping 98th percentile for "Trade Policy." Finally, a 63rd percentile for "Land Rights and Access" does not exactly sound socialist. Even "Regulatory Quality" was 89th percentile. According to very capitalist standards, Zelaya was given high marks.

Check out the entire article (as well as the MCC data) and I agree with the following assessment:

Honduras’ failure to make the grade in those two measures (“rule of law” and “control of corruption”) can be seen, then, in hindsight, as a red flag pointing to the fact that conditions were primed for a coup in Honduras — and until those areas are addressed going forward, any hope for ensuring real democracy in the nation may be ultimately doomed.

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Basic facts in Honduras

The Janesville Gazette of all places put opposing articles together about the crisis in Honduras, with the following question: Should the continued presence of a de facto government in Honduras be considered a serious setback for democracy in Latin America? Mark Weisbrot argued yes, while Ray Walser argued no.

The two articles did not engage each other directly, but they did converge in one way that highlights the problems that coup supporters face when trying to deal with facts.

Weisbrot: Perhaps the biggest lie, repeated thousands of times in the news reporting and op-eds of the major media, was that Zelaya was overthrown because he was trying to extend his term of office.

Walser: [T]he Honduran Congress and Supreme Court ousted then-President Manuel Zelaya from office due to his unconstitutional bid to eliminate term limits.

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Out of captivity and into the courtroom

Two months ago I reviewed the book Out of Captivity, which chronicled the U.S. citizens captured by the FARC and held for five years. Now in an unusual twist, they are suing the FARC.

Fair enough. If I were held hostage I would want to do whatever I could to demand compensation as well. The suit, however, seems to cover just about everything under the sun, including charges of international drug trafficking. Of course, the FARC is an international drug trafficking organization, but I don't see how that relates to the case. It also names as defendants members of the FARC in U.S. jails, who had nothing to do with the kidnapping.

It is hard to see them ever getting compensation, but I suppose it's worth a shot.

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Quote of the day: Honduras

From State Department Spokesman Ian Kelly:

"Of course, we’re involved. We are involved because we want to be involved, because it’s important for us to be involved. We’re involved because they want us to be involved."

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Robert Arellano's Havana Lunar

I read Robert Arellano's Havana Lunar, another example of a growing number of novels dealing with Cuba's Special Period. As such, it is all gritty realism as the characters try to sort themselves out in the face of deprivation and uncertainty. The main character, Mano, even talks to his Che Guevara poster, hoping for answers. And, similar to Achy Abejas' Ruins, the novel uses a hurricane as a symbol of violent cleansing.

The plot revolves around Mano, a clinic doctor, who does what he can to help a jinetera, Cuban slang for a sex worker. He has his own personal baggage, including an ex-wife who left him to do revolutionary work abroad and a hemorrhage under his right eye, which became known as a "Havana Lunar." Some of the more compelling parts of the novel involve Mano's confrontations with her pimp, who blames him for her newly acquired independent streak.

Mano shows a curious combination of resignation and action. He does not feel he can change his life much, and is constantly dealing with shortages of various kinds (including in the clinic) but he perseveres even if it puts him at risk. He is also faced with the shadowy National Revolutionary Police and the political elites who have access to luxury goods, but he simply pushes ahead, trying to do what he believes is right.

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U.S. policy toward Colombia

Adam Isacson at the Center for International Policy writes about a letter currently circulating through Congress, asking Secretary of State Clinton to rethink the aid package to Colombia for FY 2011. In short, it asks to take human rights more into consideration, to change coca eradication strategies, to increase emphasis on drug treatment, and to reduce the flow of money to the Colombia military. He hopes to spread the word and increase the number of congressional signatures.

The text of the letter can be found here at the Latin American Working Group.

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